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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.