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Wealthy entrepreneur Andrej Babis has clinched victory in the Czech Republic's legislative polls, though his populist-leaning ANO party did not secure an absolute majority, according to early counts.

With present forecasts, ANO received nearly 35% of the ballots, giving them 81 positions in the 200-member lower house.

Babis – who previously served as the head of government from 2017 to 2021 – is anticipated to get the call to lead negotiations on creating a new coalition.

Election Outcome Raises Significant Inquiries

This voting process brought no big surprises, but generates plenty of doubts.

Very few believed the present centre-right coalition would last.

Rarely anyone disputed that Babis would finish first.

Few observers predicted he would gain adequate positions to rule alone.

Every one of these predictions – corroborated by each public opinion study in the previous couple of years – have been realized.

This is the simple part. However, what is ahead?

Coalition Negotiations Set to Begin

Babis will initiate discussions without delay – perhaps as soon as tonight – with the two minor nationalist anti-EU groups that were able to exceed the 5% barrier: the anti-Green Deal Motorists for Themselves, and the opposed to immigration Liberty and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, chaired by businessperson of Czech-Japanese descent Tomio Okamura.

It looks like Babis will need an partnership with each to form a majority government.

Shared Interests with the Drivers' Faction

ANO will have most in common with the Motorists. The pair currently sit in the same European Parliament group – the "sovereignty-supporting" Patriots for Europe, that Babis founded together with Hungary's Viktor Orban and Herbert Kickl from Austria the previous year.

ANO concurs with the Drivers' doubts concerning the EU's carbon reduction objectives, and commits to adjust or reject them completely.

Each group are resolutely against Czech households bearing a higher economic cost for green energy, and the two contest the EU's prohibition on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2035.

Potential Challenges with the SPD Party

Interactions with the SPD might be more complex.

To begin with, SPD contested this election in a formal alliance with a number of fringe groups on the extreme right, indicating they must allocate some of their seats to them.

And Okamura might lack full control over the MPs in his caucus – often a source of trouble in alliance governance.

Babis has categorically refused authorizing a public vote on either EU or NATO membership – a major platform item for the SPD.

Election Discourse

The ANO leader embraced anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the last phase of the campaign, attacking the center-right administration for giving "local citizens nothing, yet Ukrainian refugees everything".

But Okamura's push for those fleeing Ukraine to be deported en masse will almost certainly be rejected.

Governing Options

Ultimately Babis might choose to govern independently, in a minority administration supported by the Drivers and Freedom and Direct Democracy.