How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Danielle Lowe
Danielle Lowe

A professional poker coach with over a decade of experience in high-stakes tournaments and strategy development.